Nielsen's section is right about the shape of the problem and wrong about the number. The afternoon spent comparing 40 concepts is a cost you can see. The cost I found on my own fleet was invisible to a time study: 13 of 39 agents whose output nothing ever read, and 13 of 39 builds that nothing else in the system ever referenced. The invoice was never presented, so review time said zero.
The argument, the four lines that replace the batch, and the disclosure ladder from my design handbook are in Kill the Batch of Forty: Count the Unopened, Not Review Time. The fleet audit is 44 Appointed Agents, One Attention Budget, and the thirds split is Count the Kills, Not the Prototypes.