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Day 4 of 7 · Outcomes Thinking

The eval is the spec

Outputs are tickets shipped. Outcomes are customer behavior that changed.

Counting tickets closed is the oldest PM habit there is. None of those numbers prove a customer behaves differently.

Outcomes thinking means naming the behavior change before anyone builds, and the signal that will prove it. One sentence: this will cause a specific customer to do a specific thing, by how much, by when. If you can't write it with a number and a name, you're not ready to build.

For AI features the eval is that sentence made executable. Define what good means before the code exists: a rubric, twenty test cases across the happy path, the edges, and the adversarial inputs. Wire it into CI and nobody ships a regression without you knowing.

Generating options is close to free now. The scarce half of this skill is selection: killing the ideas that won't move the outcome before they eat a sprint.

Today

Write the outcome sentence for the thing you're building right now. If it's an AI feature, write the first ten eval cases too.

Done when: Someone on your team could read the sentence and tell you, in a month, whether it worked.

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